Improving the Drake Equation

Quantifying the origins of life on a planetary scale

Authors:

Scharf et al

Abstract:

A simple, heuristic formula with parallels to the Drake Equation is introduced to help focus discussion on open questions for the origins of life in a planetary context. This approach indicates a number of areas where quantitative progress can be made on parameter estimation for determining origins of life probabilities, based on constraints from Bayesian approaches. We discuss a variety of “microscale” factors and their role in determining “macroscale” abiogenesis probabilities on suitable planets. We also propose that impact ejecta exchange between planets with parallel chemistries and chemical evolution could in principle amplify the development of molecular complexity and abiogenesis probabilities. This amplification could be very significant, and both bias our conclusions about abiogenesis probabilities based on the Earth and provide a major source of variance in the probability of life arising in planetary systems. We use our heuristic formula to suggest a number of observational routes for improving constraints on origins of life probabilities.

The Likelihood of Life on the Cosmological Scale

Relative Likelihood for Life as a Function of Cosmic Time

Authors:

Loeb et al

Abstract:

Is life most likely to emerge at the present cosmic time near a star like the Sun? We address this question by calculating the relative formation probability per unit time of habitable Earth-like planets within a fixed comoving volume of the Universe, dP(t)/dt, starting from the first stars and continuing to the distant cosmic future. We conservatively restrict our attention to the context of "life as we know it" and the standard cosmological model, LCDM. We find that unless habitability around low mass stars is suppressed, life is most likely to exist near 0.1 solar-mass stars ten trillion years from now. Spectroscopic searches for biosignatures in the atmospheres of transiting Earth-mass planets around low mass stars will determine whether present-day life is indeed premature or typical from a cosmic perspective.

Chemical Elements Abundance in the Universe and the Origin of Life

Chemical Elements Abundance in the Universe and the Origin of Life

Authors:

Valkovic et al

Abstract:

Element synthesis which started with p-p chain has resulted in several specific characteristics including lack of any stable isotope having atomic masses 5 or 8. The carbon to oxygen ratio is fixed early by the chain of coincidences. These, remarkably fine-tuned, conditions are responsible for our own existence and indeed the existence of any carbon based life in the Universe. Chemical evolution of galaxies reflects in the changes of chemical composition of stars, interstellar gas and dust. The evolution of chemical element abundances in a galaxy provides a clock for galactic aging. On the other hand, the living matter on the planet Earth needs only some elements for its existence. Compared with element requirements of living matter a hypothesis is put forward, by accepting the Anthropic Principle, which says: life as we know, (H-C-N-O) based, relying on the number of bulk and trace elements originated when two element abundance curves, living matter and galactic, coincided. This coincidence occurring at particular redshift could indicates the phase of the Universe when the life originated. It is proposed to look into redshift region z = 0.5 to 2.5 (approximately t = -5.2x10E9 to -11.3x10E9 years) where many galaxies have been observed and to use these data to study the evolution of metallicity with respect to the other properties of galaxies in order to determine the time when universal element abundance curve coincided with the element abundance curve of LUCA. The characteristic properties of the latter have been transmitted by the genetic code while the universe element abundance curve changed as the galaxies aged.

Are we the First Ones?

The universe is 13.8 billion years old, while our planet formed just 4.5 billion years ago. Some scientists think this time gap means that life on other planets could be billions of years older than ours. However, new theoretical work suggests that present-day life is actually premature from a cosmic perspective.

"If you ask, 'When is life most likely to emerge?' you might naively say, 'Now,'" says lead author Avi Loeb of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. "But we find that the chance of life grows much higher in the distant future."

Life as we know it first became possible about 30 million years after the Big Bang, when the first stars seeded the cosmos with the necessary elements like carbon and oxygen. Life will end 10 trillion years from now when the last stars fade away and die. Loeb and his colleagues considered the relative likelihood of life between those two boundaries.

The dominant factor proved to be the lifetimes of stars. The higher a star's mass, the shorter its lifetime. Stars larger than about three times the sun's mass will expire before life has a chance to evolve.

Conversely, the smallest stars weigh less than 10 percent as much as the Sun. They will glow for 10 trillion years, giving life ample time to emerge on any planets they host. As a result, the probability of life grows over time. In fact, chances of life are 1000 times higher in the distant future than now.

"So then you may ask, why aren't we living in the future next to a low-mass star?" says Loeb.

"One possibility is we're premature. Another possibility is that the environment around a low-mass star is hazardous to life."

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Could the Earliest Life in the Universe Arise on Carbon Worlds First?

Our Earth consists of silicate rocks and an iron core with a thin veneer of water and life. But the first potentially habitable worlds to form might have been very different. New research suggests that planet formation in the early universe might have created carbon planets consisting of graphite, carbides, and diamond. Astronomers might find these diamond worlds by searching a rare class of stars.

"This work shows that even stars with a tiny fraction of the carbon in our solar system can host planets," says lead author and Harvard University graduate student Natalie Mashian.

"We have good reason to believe that alien life will be carbon-based, like life on Earth, so this also bodes well for the possibility of life in the early universe," she adds.

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Bad News for the Potential for Life AroundOn Exoplanets?

In 2012, two scientists published a paper which reminded us of this fact. David Spiegel, from Princeton University, and Edwin Turner, from the University of Tokyo, conducted what’s called a Bayesian analysis on how our understanding of the early emergence of life on Earth affects our understanding of the existence of life elsewhere.

A Bayesian analysis is a complicated matter for non-specialists, but in this paper it’s used to separate out the influence of data, and the influence of our prior beliefs, when estimating the probability of life on other worlds. What the two researchers concluded is that our prior beliefs about the existence of life elsewhere have a large effect on any probabilistic conclusions we make about life elsewhere. As the authors say in the paper, “Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young-Earth-like conditions.”

A key part of all this is that life may have had a head start on Earth. Since then, it’s taken about 3.5 billion years for creatures to evolve to the point where they can think about such things. So this is where we find ourselves; looking out into the Universe and searching and wondering. But it’s possible that life may take a lot longer to get going on other worlds. We just don’t know, but many of the guesses have assumed that abiogenesis on Earth is standard for other planets.

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Does the Formation of Life Require Alkali Hydrothermal Vents?

The Origin of Life in Alkaline Hydrothermal Vents

Authors:

Sojo et al

Abstract:

Over the last 70 years, prebiotic chemists have been very successful in synthesizing the molecules of life, from amino acids to nucleotides. Yet there is strikingly little resemblance between much of this chemistry and the metabolic pathways of cells, in terms of substrates, catalysts, and synthetic pathways. In contrast, alkaline hydrothermal vents offer conditions similar to those harnessed by modern autotrophs, but there has been limited experimental evidence that such conditions could drive prebiotic chemistry. In the Hadean, in the absence of oxygen, alkaline vents are proposed to have acted as electrochemical flow reactors, in which alkaline fluids saturated in H2 mixed with relatively acidic ocean waters rich in CO2, through a labyrinth of interconnected micropores with thin inorganic walls containing catalytic Fe(Ni)S minerals. The difference in pH across these thin barriers produced natural proton gradients with equivalent magnitude and polarity to the proton-motive force required for carbon fixation in extant bacteria and archaea. How such gradients could have powered carbon reduction or energy flux before the advent of organic protocells with genes and proteins is unknown. Work over the last decade suggests several possible hypotheses that are currently being tested in laboratory experiments, field observations, and phylogenetic reconstructions of ancestral metabolism. We analyze the perplexing differences in carbon and energy metabolism in methanogenic archaea and acetogenic bacteria to propose a possible ancestral mechanism of CO2 reduction in alkaline hydrothermal vents. Based on this mechanism, we show that the evolution of active ion pumping could have driven the deep divergence of bacteria and archaea.

Influence of the UV Environment on the Synthesis of Prebiotic Molecules

Influence of the UV Environment on the Synthesis of Prebiotic Molecules

Authors:

Ranjan et al

Abstract:

Ultraviolet radiation is common to most planetary environments and could play a key role in the chemistry of molecules relevant to abiogenesis (prebiotic chemistry). In this work, we explore the impact of UV light on prebiotic chemistry that might occur in liquid water on the surface of a planet with an atmosphere. We consider effects including atmospheric absorption, attenuation by water, and stellar variability to constrain the UV input as a function of wavelength. We conclude that the UV environment would be characterized by broadband input, and wavelengths below 204 nm and 168 nm would be shielded out by atmospheric CO2 and water, respectively. We compare this broadband prebiotic UV input to the narrowband UV sources (e.g., mercury lamps) often used in laboratory studies of prebiotic chemistry and explore the implications for the conclusions drawn from these experiments. We consider as case studies the ribonucleotide synthesis pathway of Powner et al. (2009) and the sugar synthesis pathway of Ritson and Sutherland (2012). Irradiation by narrowband UV light from a mercury lamp formed an integral component of these studies; we quantitatively explore the impact of more realistic UV input on the conclusions that can be drawn from these experiments. Finally, we explore the constraints solar UV input places on the buildup of prebiotically important feedstock gasses like CH4 and HCN. Our results demonstrate the importance of characterizing the wavelength dependence (action spectra) of prebiotic synthesis pathways to determine how pathways derived under laboratory irradiation conditions will function under planetary prebiotic conditions.

Quantifying the Origins of Life on a Planetary Scale

Quantifying the Origins of Life on a Planetary Scale

Authors:

Scharf et al

Abstract:

A simple, heuristic formula with parallels to the Drake Equation is introduced to help focus discussion on open questions for the origins of life in a planetary context. This approach indicates a number of areas where quantitative progress can be made on parameter estimation for determining origins of life probabilities. We also suggest that the probability of origin of life events can be dramatically increased on planets with parallel chemistries that can undergo the development of complexity, and in solar systems where more than one planet is available for chemical evolution, and where efficient impact ejecta exchange occurs, increasing the effective chemical search space and available time.

The UltraViolet Light Environment is VERY Important for Prebiotic Chemistry

Influence of the UV Environment on the Synthesis of Prebiotic Molecules

Authors:

Ranjan et al

Abstract:

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is common to most planetary environments, and could play a key role in the chemistry of molecules relevant to abiogenesis (prebiotic chemistry). In this work, we explore the impact of UV light on prebiotic chemistry that might occur in liquid water on the surface of a planet with an atmosphere. We consider effects including atmospheric absorption, attenuation by water, and stellar variability to constrain the UV input as a function of wavelength. We conclude that the UV environment would be characterized by broadband input, and wavelengths below 204 nm and 168 nm would be shielded out by atmospheric CO2 and water, respectively. We compare this broadband prebiotic UV input to the narrowband UV sources (e.g. mercury lamps) often used in laboratory studies of prebiotic chemistry, and explore the implications for the conclusions drawn from these experiments. We consider as case studies the ribonucleotide synthesis pathway of Powner et al (2009) and the sugar synthesis pathway of Ritson et al (2012). Irradiation by narrowband UV light from a mercury lamp formed an integral component of these studies: we quantitatively explore the impact of more realistic UV input on the conclusions that can be drawn from these experiments. Finally, we explore the constraints solar UV input places on the buildup of prebiotically important feedstock gasses like CH4 and HCN. Our results demonstrate the importance of characterizing the wavelength dependence (action spectra) of prebiotic synthesis pathways to determine how pathways derived under laboratory irradiation conditions will function under planetary prebiotic conditions.

Lightning and the Generation of Organics in Exoplanetary Atmospheres

A Chemical Kinetics Network for Lightning and Life in Planetary Atmospheres

Authors:

Rimmer et al

Abstract:

There are many open questions about prebiotic chemistry in both planetary and exoplanetary environments. The increasing number of known exoplanets and other ultra-cool, substellar objects has propelled the desire to detect life and prebiotic chemistry outside the solar system. We present an ion-neutral chemical network constructed from scratch, Stand2015, that treats hydrogen, nitrogen, carbon and oxygen chemistry accurately within a temperature range between 100 K and 30000 K. Formation pathways for glycine and other organic molecules are included. The network is complete up to H6C2N2O3. Stand2015 is successfully tested against atmospheric chemistry models for HD209458b, Jupiter and the present-day Earth using a simple 1D photochemistry/diffusion code. Our results for the early Earth agree with those of Kasting (1993) for CO2, H2, CO and O2, but do not agree for water and atomic oxygen. We use the network to simulate an experiment where varied chemical initial conditions are irradiated by UV light. The result from our simulation is that more glycine is produced when more ammonia and methane is present. Very little glycine is produced in the absence of any molecular nitrogen and oxygen. This suggests that production of glycine is inhibited if a gas is too strongly reducing. Possible applications and limitations of the chemical kinetics network are also discussed.

SETI Talks: New Origin of Life