Academic Bun Fight Over Gliese 581d: is it a False Positive or not?

Robertson et al who claimed Gleise 581d is a false positive did a bad analysis:

Comment on “Stellar activity masquerading as planets in the habitable zone of the M dwarf Gliese 581”

Authors:

Anglada-Escudé et al

Abstract:

Robertson et al. (Reports, 25 July 2014, p. 440) claimed that activity-induced variability is responsible for the Doppler signal of the proposed planet candidate GJ 581d. We point out that their analysis using periodograms of residual data is inappropriate and promotes inadequate tools. Because the claim challenges the viability of the method to detect exo-Earths, we encourage reanalysis and a deliberation on what the field-standard methods should be.

pop sci write up.

No, we did not!

Response to Comment on “Stellar activity masquerading as planets in the habitable zone of the M dwarf Gliese 581”

Authors:

Robertson et al

Abstract:

Anglada-Escudé and Tuomi question the statistical rigor of our analysis while ignoring the stellar activity aspects that we present. Although we agree that improvements in multiparametric radial velocity (RV) modeling are necessary for the detection of Earth-mass planets, the key physical points we raised were not challenged. We maintain that activity on Gliese 581 induces RV shifts that were interpreted as exoplanets.

A Search for Planets Orbiting Nearby M Dwarfs using Astrometry

The Solar Neighborhood. XXXIV. A Search for Planets Orbiting Nearby M Dwarfs using Astrometry

Authors:

Lurie et al

Abstract:

Astrometric measurements are presented for seven nearby stars with previously detected planets: six M dwarfs (GJ 317, GJ 667C, GJ 581, GJ 849, GJ 876, and GJ 1214) and one K dwarf (BD −10 3166). Measurements are also presented for six additional nearby M dwarfs without known planets, but which are more favorable to astrometric detections of low mass companions, as well as three binary systems for which we provide astrometric orbit solutions. Observations have baselines of three to thirteen years, and were made as part of the RECONS long-term astrometry and photometry program at the CTIO/SMARTS 0.9m telescope. We provide trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions for all 16 systems, and perform an extensive analysis of the astrometric residuals to determine the minimum detectable companion mass for the 12 M dwarfs not having close stellar secondaries. For the six M dwarfs with known planets, we are not sensitive to planets, but can rule out the presence of all but the least massive brown dwarfs at periods of 2 - 12 years. For the six more astrometrically favorable M dwarfs, we conclude that none have brown dwarf companions, and are sensitive to companions with masses as low as 1 MJup for periods longer than two years. In particular, we conclude that Proxima Centauri has no Jovian companions at orbital periods of 2 - 12 years. These results complement previously published M dwarf planet occurrence rates by providing astrometrically determined upper mass limits on potential super-Jupiter companions at orbits of two years and longer. As part of a continuing survey, these results are consistent with the paucity of super-Jupiter and brown dwarf companions we find among the over 250 red dwarfs within 25 pc observed longer than five years in our astrometric program.

Gliese 581g & Gliese 581d Probably do NOT Exist

Stellar activity masquerading as planets in the habitable zone of the M dwarf Gliese 581

Authors:

Robertson et al

Abstract:

The M dwarf Gliese 581 is believed to host four planets, including one (GJ 581d) near the habitable zone that could possibly support liquid water on its surface if it is a rocky planet. The detection of another habitable-zone planet—GJ 581 g—is disputed, as its significance depends on the eccentricity assumed for d. Analyzing stellar activity using the Hα line, we measure a stellar rotation period of 130 ± 2 days and a correlation for Hα modulation with radial velocity. Correcting for activity greatly diminishes the signal of GJ 581d (to 1.5σ) while significantly boosting the signals of the other known super-Earth planets. GJ 581d does not exist, but is an artifact of stellar activity which, when incompletely corrected, causes the false detection of planet g.

N Body Simulation of Gliese 581 Shows 4 Body System Stable in the Long Term

A CONSISTENT ORBITAL STABILITY ANALYSIS FOR THE GJ 581 SYSTEM

Authors:

Joiner et al

Abstract:

We apply a combination of N-body modeling techniques and automated data fitting with Monte Carlo Markov Chain uncertainty analysis of Keplerian orbital models to RV data to determine long-term stability of the planetary system GJ 581. We find that while there are stability concerns with the four-planet model as published by Forveille et al., when uncertainties in the system are accounted for, particularly stellar jitter, the hypothesis that the four-planet model is gravitationally unstable is not statistically significant. Additionally, the system including proposed planet g by Vogt et al. also shows some stability concerns when eccentricities are allowed to float in the orbital fit, yet when uncertainties are included in the analysis, the system including planet g also cannot be proven to be unstable. We present revised reduced χ2 values for Keplerian astrocentric orbital fits assuming four-planet and five-planet models for GJ 581 under the condition that best fits must be stable, and we find no distinguishable difference by including planet g in the model. Additionally, we present revised orbital element estimates for each, assuming uncertainties due to stellar jitter under the constraint of the system being gravitationally stable.

Modeling the Atmosphere of Gliese 581g and Other Potentially Tidally Locked SuperEarths

Connecting the dots: A versatile terrestrial planet benchmark for the atmospheres of tidally locked Super-Earths

Authors:

Carone et al

Abstract:

We develop a benchmark for quantifying sustained global dynamics in the atmospheres of tidally locked terrestrial planets using the MITgcm core as the basis of a dry 3D-GCM with simplified thermal forcing. Our forcing employs a Newtonian relaxation scheme based on a simple greenhouse model. Our model is of the same conceptional simplicity than the model of Held& Suarez1994 and is thus versatile and computationally fast. As a case study relevant for Super-Earths, we investigate a Gl581g-like planet with Earth-like atmosphere and irradiation, and present all details on the obtained thermodynamics for representative rotation periods of Prot=10 days and Prot=36.5 days. This provides proof of concept and identifies interesting dynamical features for the rotating regime 3 less than Period of rotation less than 100 days, which was shown by Edson et al. 2011 to be an intermediate regime between equatorial superrotation and divergence.

We confirm that the Prot=10 days case is more dominated by equatorial superrotation dynamics than the Prot=36.5 days case, which shows diminishing influence of standing Rossby-Kelvin waves and increasing influence of divergence at the top of the atmosphere. We argue that this relates to the increase in Rossby deformation radius, in agreement with previous studies using more complex models. However, we also pay attention to other features that are not or only in partial agreement with other studies, like, e.g., the number of circulation cells and strength, the role and extent of thermal inversion layers, and the details of heat transport.

The Stability of the Gliese 581 System

Dynamical stability of the Gliese 581 exoplanetary system

Authors:

Toth et al

Abstract:

Using numerical methods we investigate the dynamical stability of the Gliese 581 exoplanetary system. The system is known to harbour four planets (b-e). The existence of another planet (g) in the liquid water habitable zone of the star is debated after the latest analyses of the radial velocity (RV) measurements. We integrated the 4 and 5-planet model of Vogt et al. (AN 333, 561-575, 2012) with initial circular orbits. To characterize stability, the maximum eccentricity was used that the planets reached over the time of the integrations and the LCI and RLI to identify chaotic motion. Since circular orbits in the RV fits seem to be a too strong restriction and the true orbits might be elliptic, we investigated the stability of the planets as a function of their eccentricity. The integration of the circular 4-planet model shows that it is stable on a longer timescale for even an inclination i = 5{\deg}. A fifth planetary body in the 4-planet model could have a stable orbit between the two super-Earth sized planets c and d, and beyond the orbit of planet d, although another planet would likely only be stable on circular or near-circular orbit in the habitable zone of the star. Gliese 581 g in the 5-planet model would have a dynamically stable orbit, even for a wider range of orbital parameters, but its stability is strongly dependent on the eccentricity of planet d. The low-mass planet e, which quickly became unstable in eccentric models, remains stable in the circular 4-planet model, but the stable region around its initial semi-major axis and eccentricity is rather small. The stability of the inner planets e and c is dependent on the eccentricity of the Neptune-size planet b. The outermost planet d is far away from the adjacent planet c to considerably influence its stability, however, the existence of a planet between the two super-Earth planets c and d constrains its eccentricity.

The Orbital Resonance Configuration of Gliese 163, Gliese 581

Resonance breaking due to dissipation in planar planetary systems

Authors:

Delisle et al

Abstract:

We study the evolution of two planets around a star, in mean-motion resonance and undergoing tidal effect. We derive an integrable analytical model of mean-motion resonances of any order which reproduce the main features of the resonant dynamics. Using this simplified model, we obtain a criterion showing that depending on the balance of the tidal dissipation in both planets, their final period ratio may stay at the resonant value, increase above, or decrease below the resonant value.

Applying this criterion to the two inner planets orbiting GJ163, we deduce that the current period ratio (2.97) could be the outcome of dissipation in the 3:1 MMR provided that the innermost planet is gaseous (slow dissipation) while the second one is rocky (faster dissipation). We perform N-body simulations with tidal dissipation to confirm the results of our analytical model.

We also apply our criterion on GJ581b, c (5:2 MMR) and reproduce the current period ratio (2.4) if the inner planet is gaseous and the outer is rocky (as for GJ163).

Finally, we apply our model to the Kepler mission's statistics. We show that the excess of planets pairs close to first order MMR but in external circulation, i.e., with period ratios P_out/P_in greater than (p+1)/p for the resonance (p+1):p, can be reproduced by tidal dissipation in the inner planet. There is no need for any other dissipative mechanism, provided that these systems left the resonance with non-negligible eccentricities.

How Stable are the Orbits of Exoplanets of the Gliese 581 System?

A Consistent Orbital Stability Analysis for the GJ 581 System

Authors:

Joiner et al

Abstract:

We apply a combination of N-body modeling techniques and automated data fitting with Monte Carlo Markov Chain uncertainty analysis of Keplerian orbital models to radial velocity data to determine long term stability of the planetary system GJ 581. We find that while there are stability concerns with the 4-planet model as published by Forveille et al. (2011), when uncertainties in the system are accounted for, particularly stellar jitter, the hypothesis that the 4-planet model is gravitationally unstable is not statistically significant. Additionally, the system including proposed planet g by Vogt et al. (2012) also shows some stability concerns when eccentricities are allowed to float in the orbital fit, yet when uncertainties are included in the analysis the system including planet g also can not be proven to be unstable. We present revised reduced chi-squared values for Keplerian astrocentric orbital fits assuming 4-planet and 5-planet models for GJ~581 under the condition that best fits must be stable, and find no distinguishable difference by including planet g in the model. Additionally we present revised orbital element estimates for each assuming uncertainties due to stellar jitter under the constraint of the system being gravitationally stable.

Brown Dwarf Candidates Found Near Gliese 86, HD 160691, Gliese 581; In Field of View of HD 69830 and 47 UMa

A Mid-Infrared Search for Substellar Companions of Nearby Planet-Host Stars

Authors:

Hulsebus et al

Abstract:

Determining the presence of widely separated substellar-mass companion is crucial to understand the dynamics of inner planets in extrasolar planetary systems (e.g. to explain their high mean eccentricity as inner planets are perturbed by the Kozai mechanism). We report the results of our Spitzer/Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) imaging search for widely separated (10 to 25′′) substellar-mass companions for 14 planet-host stars within 15 pc of the Sun. Using deep 3.6 and 4.5 μm observations in subarray mode, we found one object in the field of 47 UMa with [3.6]−[4.5] color similar to a T5 dwarf, which is, however, unlikely to share common proper motion with 47 UMa. We also found three objects with brown-dwarf-like [3.6]−[4.5] color limits in the fields of GJ 86, HD 160691, and GJ 581, as well as another in the field of HD 69830 for which we have excluded common proper motion. We provide model-based upper mass limits for unseen objects around all stars in our sample, with typical sensitivity to 10 MJ objects from a projected separation of 50 to 300 au from the parent star. We also discuss our data analysis methods for point-spread-function subtraction, image co-alignment, and artifact subtraction of IRAC subarray images.

Unknown Properties of Stars Effect Their Habitable Zones

HABITABLE ZONE DEPENDENCE ON STELLAR PARAMETER UNCERTAINTIES

Author:

Kane

Abstract:

An important property of exoplanetary systems is the extent of the Habitable Zone (HZ), defined as that region where water can exist in a liquid state on the surface of a planet with sufficient atmospheric pressure. Both ground- and space-based observations have revealed a plethora of confirmed exoplanets and exoplanetary candidates, most notably from the Kepler mission using the transit detection technique. Many of these detected planets lie within the predicted HZ of their host star. However, as is the case with the derived properties of the planets themselves, the HZ boundaries depend on how well we understand the host star. Here we quantify the uncertainties of HZ boundaries on the parameter uncertainties of the host star. We examine the distribution of stellar parameter uncertainties from confirmed exoplanet hosts and Kepler candidate hosts and translate these into HZ boundary uncertainties. We apply this to several known systems with an HZ planet to determine the uncertainty in their HZ status.

Sinistra, Gliese 581 Systems Modeled: SInistra has 2 Exoplanets/Brown Dwarfs, Gliese 581 Five or Six Exoplanets

The Probabilities of Orbital-Companion Models for Stellar Radial Velocity Data

Authors:

Hou et al

Abstract:

The fully marginalized likelihood, or Bayesian evidence, is of great importance in probabilistic data analysis, because it is involved in calculating the posterior probability of a model or re-weighting a mixture of models conditioned on data. It is, however, extremely challenging to compute. This paper presents a geometric-path Monte Carlo method, inspired by multi-canonical Monte Carlo to evaluate the fully marginalized likelihood. We show that the algorithm is very fast and easy to implement and produces a justified uncertainty estimate on the fully marginalized likelihood. The algorithm performs efficiently on a trial problem and multi-companion model fitting for radial velocity data. For the trial problem, the algorithm returns the correct fully marginalized likelihood, and the estimated uncertainty is also consistent with the standard deviation of results from multiple runs. We apply the algorithm to the problem of fitting radial velocity data from HIP 88048 (ν Oph) and Gliese 581. We evaluate the fully marginalized likelihood of 1, 2, 3, and 4-companion models given data from HIP 88048 and various choices of prior distributions. We consider prior distributions with three different minimum radial velocity amplitude Kmin. Under all three priors, the 2-companion model has the largest marginalized likelihood, but the detailed values depend strongly on Kmin. We also evaluate the fully marginalized likelihood of 3, 4, 5, and 6-planet model given data from Gliese 581 and find that the fully marginalized likelihood of the 5-planet model is too close to that of the 6-planet model for us to confidently decide between them.