Twenty Years of Precise Radial Velocities at Keck and Lick Observatories

Twenty Years of Precise Radial Velocities at Keck and Lick Observatories

Authors:

Wright et al

Abstract:

The precise radial velocity survey at Keck Observatory began over 20 years ago. Its survey of thousands of stars now has the time baseline to be sensitive to planets with decade-long orbits, including Jupiter analogs. I present several newly-finished orbital solutions for long-period giant planets. Although hot Jupiters are generally "lonely" (i.e. they are not part of multiplanet systems), those that are not appear to often have giant companions at 5 AU or beyond. I present two of the highest period- ratios among planets in a two-planet system, and some of the longest orbital periods ever measured for exoplanets. In many cases, combining Keck radial velocities from those from other long-term surveys at Lick Observatory, McDonald Observatory, HARPS, and, of course, OHP spectrographs, produces superior orbital fits, constraining both period and eccentricity better than could be possible with any single set alone. Stellar magnetic activity cycles can masquerade as long-period planets. In most cases this effect is very small, but a loud minority of stars, including, apparently, HD 154345, show very strong RV-activity correlations.

Stellar Activity and Exclusion of the Outer Planet in the HD 99492 System

Stellar Activity and Exclusion of the Outer Planet in the HD 99492 System

Authors:

Kane et al

Abstract:

A historical problem for indirect exoplanet detection has been contending with the intrinsic variability of the host star. If the variability is periodic, it can easily mimic various exoplanet signatures, such as radial velocity variations that originate with the stellar surface rather than the presence of a planet. Here we present an update for the HD~99492 planetary system, using new radial velocity and photometric measurements from the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS). Our extended time series and subsequent analyses of the Ca II H\&K emission lines show that the host star has an activity cycle of ∼13 years. The activity cycle correlates with the purported orbital period of the outer planet, the signature of which is thus likely due to the host star activity. We further include a revised Keplerian orbital solution for the remaining planet, along with a new transit ephemeris. Our transit-search observations were inconclusive.

HD 219134 has a 12 Year Solar Acitivity Cycle

A 12-Year Activity Cycle for HD 219134

Authors:

Johnson et al

Abstract:

The nearby (6.5 pc) star HD 219134 was recently shown by Motalebi et al. (2015) and Vogt et al. (2015) to host several planets, the innermost of which is transiting. We present twenty-seven years of radial velocity observations of this star from the McDonald Observatory Planet Search program, and nineteen years of stellar activity data. We detect a long-period activity cycle measured in the Ca II SHK index, with a period of 4230±100 days (11.7 years), very similar to the 11-year Solar activity cycle. Although the period of the Saturn-mass planet HD 219134 h is close to half that of the activity cycle, we argue that it is not an artifact due to stellar activity. We also find a significant periodicity in the SHK data due to stellar rotation with a period of 22.8 days. This is identical to the period of planet f identified by Vogt et al. (2015), suggesting that this radial velocity signal might be caused by rotational modulation of stellar activity rather than a planet. Analysis of our radial velocities allows us to detect the long-period planet HD 219134 h and the transiting super-Earth HD 219134 b. Finally, we use our long time baseline to constrain the presence of longer-period planets in the system, excluding to 1σ objects with Msini greater than 0.36MJ at 12 years (corresponding to the orbital period of Jupiter) and Msini greater than 0.72MJ at a period of 16.4 years (assuming a circular orbit for an outer companion).

An Apodized Kepler Periodogram for Separating Planetary and Stellar Activity Signals

An Apodized Kepler Periodogram for Separating Planetary and Stellar Activity Signals

Authors:

Gregory et al

Abstract:

A new apodized Keplerian (AK) model is proposed for the analysis of precision radial velocity (RV) data to model both planetary and stellar activity (SA) induced RV signals. A symmetrical Gaussian apodization function with unknown width and center can distinguish planetary signals from SA signals on the basis of the span of the apodization window. The general model for m apodized Keplerian signals includes a linear regression term between RV and the stellar activity diagnostic log(R′hk), as well as an extra Gaussian noise term with unknown standard deviation. The model parameters are explored using a Bayesian fusion MCMC code. A differential version of the Generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram that employs a control diagnostic provides an additional way of distinguishing SA signals and helps guide the choice of new periods. Results are reported for a recent international RV blind challenge which included multiple state of the art simulated data sets supported by a variety of stellar activity diagnostics. In the current implementation, the AK method achieved a reduction in SA noise by a factor of approximately 6. Final parameter estimates for the planetary candidates are derived from fits that include AK signals to model the SA components and simple Keplerians to model the planetary candidates. Preliminary results are also reported for AK models augmented by a moving average component that allows for correlations in the residuals.

Gliese 581d is a Stellar Activity False Positive

Periodic Halpha variations in GL 581: Further evidence for an activity origin to GL 581d

Author:

Hatzes

Abstract:

Radial velocity measurements showed evidence that the M dwarf GL 581 might host a planet, GL 581d, in the so-called "habitable zone" of the star. A study of Halpha in GL 581 demonstrated that changes in this activity indicator correlated with radial velocity variations attributed to GL 581d. An exopplanet that was important for studies of planet habitability may be an artifact of stellar activity. Previous investigations analyzing the same activity data have reached different conclusions regarding the existence of GL 581d. We therfore investigated the Halpha variations for GL 581 to assess the nature of the radial velocity variations attributed to the possible planet GL 581d. We performed a Fourier analysis of the published Halpha measurements for GL 581d using a so-called pre-whitening process to isolate the variations at the orbital frequency of GL 581d. The frequency analysis yields five significant frequencies, one of which is associated with the 66.7 d orbital period of the presumed planet Gl 581d. The Halpha variations at this period show sine-like variations that are 180 degrees out-of-phase with the radial velocity variations of GL 581d. This is seen in thefull data set that spans almost 7 years, as well as a subset of the data that had good temporal sampling over 230 days. Furthermore, No significant temporal variations are found in the ratio of the amplitudes of the Halpha index and radial velocity variations. This provides additional evidence that the radial velocity signal attributed to GL 581d is in fact due to stellar activity.

Kapteyn's star Terrestrial Exoplanet is NOT a False Positive

No evidence for activity correlations in the radial velocities of Kapteyn's star

Authors:

Anglada-Escudé et al

Abstract:

Stellar activity may induce Doppler variability at the level of a few m/s which can then be confused by the Doppler signal of an exoplanet orbiting the star. To first order, linear correlations between radial velocity measurements and activity indices have been proposed to account for any such correlation. The likely presence of two super-Earths orbiting Kapteyn's star was reported in Anglada et al. (2014, MNRAS 443L, 89A), but this claim was recently challenged by Robertson et al. (2015, ApJ 805L, 22R) arguing evidence of a rotation period (143 days) at three times the orbital period of one of the proposed planets (Kapteyn's b, P=48.6 days), and the existence of strong linear correlations between its Doppler signal and activity data. By re-analyzing the data using global optimization methods and model comparison, we show that such claim is incorrect given that; 1) the choice of a rotation period at 143 days is unjustified, and 2) the presence of linear correlations is not supported by the data. We conclude that the radial velocity signals of Kapteyn's star remain more simply explained by the presence of two super-Earth candidates orbiting it. We also advocate for the use of global optimization procedures and objective arguments, instead of claims lacking of a minimal statistical support.

TESS: the Potential for False Positive Exoplanet Detections

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite: Simulations of planet detections and astrophysical false positives

Authors:

Sullivan et al

Abstract:

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is a NASA-sponsored Explorer mission that will perform a wide-field survey for planets that transit bright host stars. Here, we predict the properties of the transiting planets that TESS will detect along with the eclipsing binary stars that produce false-positive photometric signals. The predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of the nearby population of stars, occurrence rates of planets derived from Kepler, and models for the photometric performance and sky coverage of the TESS cameras. We expect that TESS will find approximately 1700 transiting planets from 200,000 pre-selected target stars. This includes 556 planets smaller than twice the size of Earth, of which 419 are hosted by M dwarf stars and 137 are hosted by FGK dwarfs. Approximately 130 of the R less than 2 R_Earth planets will have host stars brighter than K = 9. Approximately 48 of the planets with R less than 2 R_Earth lie within or near the habitable zone (0.2 less than S/S_Earth less than 2), and between 2-7 such planets have host stars brighter than K = 9. We also expect approximately 1100 detections of planets with radii 2-4 R_Earth, and 67 planets larger than 4 R_Earth. Additional planets larger than 2 R_Earth can be detected around stars that are not among the pre-selected target stars, because TESS will also deliver full-frame images at a 30-minute cadence. The planet detections are accompanied by over one thousand astrophysical false positives. We discuss how TESS data and ground-based observations can be used to distinguish the false positives from genuine planets. We also discuss the prospects for follow-up observations to measure the masses and atmospheres of the TESS planets.

Kapteyn's Star's Habitable Zone Exoplanet is Really Just Stellar Activity, False Positive

Stellar activity mimics a habitable-zone planet around Kapteyn's star

Authors:

Robertson et al

Abstract:

Kapteyn's star is an old M subdwarf believed to be a member of the Galactic halo population of stars. A recent study has claimed the existence of two super-Earth planets around the star based on radial velocity (RV) observations. The innermost of these candidate planets--Kapteyn b (P = 48 days)--resides within the circumstellar habitable zone. Given recent progress in understanding the impact of stellar activity in detecting planetary signals, we have analyzed the observed HARPS data for signatures of stellar activity. We find that while Kapteyn's star is photometrically very stable, a suite of spectral activity indices reveals a large-amplitude rotation signal, and we determine the stellar rotation period to be 143 days. The spectral activity tracers are strongly correlated with the purported RV signal of "planet b," and the 48-day period is an integer fraction (1/3) of the stellar rotation period. We conclude that Kapteyn b is not a planet in the Habitable Zone, but an artifact of stellar activity.

Robertson killed Gliese 581g, too.   He's going to get a reputation if he keeps this up.  The M Dwarf Planet Killer!

Testing the Recovery of Stellar Rotation Signals From Kepler Light Curves

Testing the recovery of stellar rotation signals from Kepler light curves using a blind hare-and-hounds exercise

Authors:

Aigrain et al

Abstract:

We present the results of a blind exercise to test the recoverability of stellar rotation and differential rotation in Kepler light curves. The simulated light curves lasted 1000 days and included activity cycles, Sun-like butterfly patterns, differential rotation and spot evolution. The range of rotation periods, activity levels and spot lifetime were chosen to be representative of the Kepler data of solar like stars. Of the 1000 simulated light curves, 770 were injected into actual quiescent Kepler light curves to simulate Kepler noise. The test also included five 1000-day segments of the Sun's total irradiance variations at different points in the Sun's activity cycle.

Five teams took part in the blind exercise, plus two teams who participated after the content of the light curves had been released. The methods used included Lomb-Scargle periodograms and variants thereof, auto-correlation function, and wavelet-based analyses, plus spot modelling to search for differential rotation. The results show that the `overall' period is well recovered for stars exhibiting low and moderate activity levels. Most teams reported values within 10% of the true value in 70% of the cases. There was, however, little correlation between the reported and simulated values of the differential rotation shear, suggesting that differential rotation studies based on full-disk light curves alone need to be treated with caution, at least for solar-type stars.

The simulated light curves and associated parameters are available online for the community to test their own methods.

Academic Bun Fight Over Gliese 581d: is it a False Positive or not?

Robertson et al who claimed Gleise 581d is a false positive did a bad analysis:

Comment on “Stellar activity masquerading as planets in the habitable zone of the M dwarf Gliese 581”

Authors:

Anglada-Escudé et al

Abstract:

Robertson et al. (Reports, 25 July 2014, p. 440) claimed that activity-induced variability is responsible for the Doppler signal of the proposed planet candidate GJ 581d. We point out that their analysis using periodograms of residual data is inappropriate and promotes inadequate tools. Because the claim challenges the viability of the method to detect exo-Earths, we encourage reanalysis and a deliberation on what the field-standard methods should be.

pop sci write up.

No, we did not!

Response to Comment on “Stellar activity masquerading as planets in the habitable zone of the M dwarf Gliese 581”

Authors:

Robertson et al

Abstract:

Anglada-Escudé and Tuomi question the statistical rigor of our analysis while ignoring the stellar activity aspects that we present. Although we agree that improvements in multiparametric radial velocity (RV) modeling are necessary for the detection of Earth-mass planets, the key physical points we raised were not challenged. We maintain that activity on Gliese 581 induces RV shifts that were interpreted as exoplanets.

Is SuperEarth/Mini Neptune Gliese 176b a Stellar Activity False Positive?

Stellar Activity and its Implications for Exoplanet Detection on GJ 176

Authors:

Robertson et al

Abstract:

We present an in-depth analysis of stellar activity and its effects on radial velocity (RV) for the M2 dwarf GJ 176 based on spectra taken over 10 years from the High Resolution Spectrograph on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope. These data are supplemented with spectra from previous observations with the HIRES and HARPS spectrographs, and V- and R-band photometry taken over 6 years at the Dyer and Fairborn observatories. Previous studies of GJ 176 revealed a super-Earth exoplanet in an 8.8-day orbit. However, the velocities of this star are also known to be contaminated by activity, particularly at the 39-day stellar rotation period. We have examined the magnetic activity of GJ 176 using the sodium I D lines, which have been shown to be a sensitive activity tracer in cool stars. In addition to rotational modulation, we see evidence of a long-term trend in our Na I D index, which may be part of a long-period activity cycle. The sodium index is well correlated with our RVs, and we show that this activity trend drives a corresponding slope in RV. Interestingly, the rotation signal remains in phase in photometry, but not in the spectral activity indicators. We interpret this phenomenon as the result of one or more large spot complexes or active regions which dominate the photometric variability, while the spectral indices are driven by the overall magnetic activity across the stellar surface. In light of these results, we discuss the potential for correcting activity signals in the RVs of M dwarfs.

M Dwarf Stellar Activity Will Cause False Positives With Radial Velocity Exoplanet Detection

Stellar activity as noise in exoplanet detection II. Application to M dwarfs

Authors:

Andersen et al

Abstract:

The ubiquity of M dwarf stars combined with their low masses and luminosities make them prime targets in the search for nearby, habitable exoplanets. We investigate the effects of starspot-induced radial velocity (RV) jitter on detection and characterization of planets orbiting M dwarfs. We create surface spot configurations with both random spot coverage and active regions. Synthetic stellar spectra are calculated from a given spot map, and RV measurements are obtained using cross-correlation technique. We add the RV signal of an orbiting planet to these jitter measurements, and reduce the data to "measure" the planetary parameters. We investigate the detectability of planets around M dwarfs of different activity levels, and the recovery of input planetary parameters. When studying the recovery of the planetary period we note that while our original orbital radius places the planet inside the HZ of its star, even at a filling factor of 2% a few of our measurements fall outside the "conservative Habitable Zone". Higher spot filling factors result in more and higher deviations. Our investigations suggest that caution should be used when characterizing planets discovered with the RV method around stars that are (or are potentially) active.

Gliese 667Cd may be an Artifact of Host Star Activity

Disentangling Planets and Stellar Activity for Gliese 667C

Authors:

Robertson et al

Abstract:

Gliese 667C is an M1.5V star with a multi-planet system, including planet candidates in the habitable zone (HZ). The exact number of planets in the system is unclear, because the existing radial velocity (RV) measurements are known to contain contributions from stellar magnetic activity. Following our analysis of Gliese 581 (Robertson et al. 2014), we have analyzed the effect of stellar activity on the HARPS/HARPS-TERRA RVs of GJ 667C, finding significant RV-activity correlation when using the width (FWHM) of the HARPS cross-correlation function to trace magnetic activity. When we correct for this correlation, we confirm the detections of the previously-observed planets b and c in the system, while simultaneously ascribing the RV signal near 90 days ("planet d") to an artifact of the stellar rotation. We are unable to confirm the existence of the additional RV periodicities described in Anglada-Escude et al. (2013) in our activity-corrected data.

Superearth CoRoT-7b may not Exist

Planets and Stellar Activity: Hide and Seek in the CoRoT-7 system

Authors:

Haywood et al

Abstract:

Since the discovery of the transiting super-Earth CoRoT-7b, several investigations have yielded different results for the number and masses of planets present in the system, mainly owing to the star's high level of activity. We re-observed CoRoT-7 in January 2012 with both HARPS and CoRoT, so that we now have the benefit of simultaneous radial-velocity and photometric data. This allows us to use the off-transit variations in the star's light curve to estimate the radial-velocity variations induced by the suppression of convective blueshift and the flux blocked by starspots. To account for activity-related effects in the radial-velocities which do not have a photometric signature, we also include an additional activity term in the radial-velocity model, which we treat as a Gaussian process with the same covariance properties (and hence the same frequency structure) as the light curve. Our model was incorporated into a Monte Carlo Markov Chain in order to make a precise determination of the orbits of CoRoT-7b and CoRoT-7c. We measure the masses of planets b and c to be 4.73 +/- 0.95 Mearth and 13.56 +/- 1.08 Mearth, respectively. The density of CoRoT-7b is (6.61 +/- 1.72)(Rp/1.58 Rearth)^(-3) g.cm^(-3), which is compatible with a rocky composition. We search for evidence of an additional planet d, identified by previous authors with a period close to 9 days. We are not able to confirm the existence of a planet with this orbital period, which is close to the second harmonic of the stellar rotation at around 7.9 days. Using Bayesian model selection we find that a model with two planets plus activity-induced variations is most favoured.

Gliese 581g & Gliese 581d Probably do NOT Exist

Stellar activity masquerading as planets in the habitable zone of the M dwarf Gliese 581

Authors:

Robertson et al

Abstract:

The M dwarf Gliese 581 is believed to host four planets, including one (GJ 581d) near the habitable zone that could possibly support liquid water on its surface if it is a rocky planet. The detection of another habitable-zone planet—GJ 581 g—is disputed, as its significance depends on the eccentricity assumed for d. Analyzing stellar activity using the Hα line, we measure a stellar rotation period of 130 ± 2 days and a correlation for Hα modulation with radial velocity. Correcting for activity greatly diminishes the signal of GJ 581d (to 1.5σ) while significantly boosting the signals of the other known super-Earth planets. GJ 581d does not exist, but is an artifact of stellar activity which, when incompletely corrected, causes the false detection of planet g.