Detection of exocometary CO within the 440 Myr-old Fomalhaut belt: a similar CO+CO2 ice abundance in exocomets and Solar System comets

Detection of exocometary CO within the 440 Myr-old Fomalhaut belt: a similar CO+CO2 ice abundance in exocomets and Solar System comets 

Authors:

Matrà et al

Abstract:
Recent ALMA observations present mounting evidence for the presence of exocometary gas released within Kuiper belt analogues around nearby main sequence stars. This represents a unique opportunity to study their ice reservoir at the younger ages when volatile delivery to planets is most likely to occur. We here present the detection of CO J=2-1 emission co-located with dust emission from the cometary belt in the 440 Myr-old Fomalhaut system. Through spectro-spatial filtering, we achieve a 5.4σ detection and determine that the ring's sky-projected rotation axis matches that of the star. The CO mass derived (0.65−42×10−7 M⊕) is the lowest of any circumstellar disk detected to date, and must be of exocometary origin. Using a steady state model, we estimate the CO+CO2 mass fraction of exocomets around Fomalhaut to be between 4.6-76%, consistent with Solar System comets and the two other belts known to host exocometary gas. This is the first indication of a similarity in cometary compositions across planetary systems that may be linked to their formation scenario and is consistent with direct ISM inheritance. In addition, we find tentative evidence that (49±27)% of the detected flux originates from a region near the eccentric belt's pericentre. If confirmed, the latter may be explained through a recent impact event or CO pericentre glow due to exocometary release within a steady state collisional cascade. In the latter scenario, we show how the azimuthal dependence of the CO release rate leads to asymmetries in gas observations of eccentric exocometary belts.

Detecting Exocomets

How to design a planetary system for different scattering outcomes: giant impact sweet spot, maximizing exocomets, scattered discs

How to design a planetary system for different scattering outcomes: giant impact sweet spot, maximizing exocomets, scattered discs

Authors:

Wyatt et al

Abstract:

This paper considers the dynamics of the scattering of planetesimals or planetary embryos by a planet on a circumstellar orbit. We classify six regions in the planet's mass versus semimajor axis parameter space according to the dominant outcome for scattered objects: ejected, accreted, remaining, escaping, Oort Cloud, and depleted Oort Cloud. We use these outcomes to consider which planetary system architectures maximize the observability of specific signatures, given that signatures should be detected first around systems with optimal architectures (if such systems exist in nature). Giant impact debris is most readily detectable for 0.1–10 M⊕ planets at 1–5 au, depending on the detection method and spectral type. While A stars have putative giant impact debris at 4–6 au consistent with this sweet spot, that of FGK stars is typically ≪1 au contrary to expectations; an absence of 1–3 au giant impact debris could indicate a low frequency of terrestrial planets there. Three principles maximize the cometary influx from exo-Kuiper belts: a chain of closely separated planets interior to the belt, none of which is a Jupiter-like ejector; planet masses not increasing strongly with distance (for a net inward torque on comets); and ongoing replenishment of comets, possibly by embedded low-mass planets. A high Oort Cloud comet influx requires no ejectors and architectures that maximize the Oort Cloud population. Cold debris discs are usually considered classical Kuiper belt analogues. Here we consider the possibility of detecting scattered disc analogues, which could be betrayed by a broad radial profile and lack of small grains, as well as spherical 100–1000 au mini-Oort Clouds. Some implications for escaping planets around young stars, detached planets akin to Sedna, and the formation of super-Earths are also discussed.

Are a Chain of Nemesis Class Exoplanets Scattering Comets Inwards in the η Corvi System?

ALMA observations of the η Corvi debris disc: inward scattering of CO-rich exocomets by a chain of 3-30 M⊕ planets?

Authors:

Marino et al

Abstract:

While most of the known debris discs present cold dust at tens of AU, a few young systems exhibit hot dust analogous to the Zodiacal dust. η Corvi is particularly interesting as it is old and it has both, with its hot dust significantly exceeding the maximum luminosity of an in-situ collisional cascade. Previous work suggested that this system could be undergoing an event similar to the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) soon after or during a dynamical instability. Here we present ALMA observations of η Corvi with a resolution of 1."2 (~22au) to study its outer belt. The continuum emission is consistent with an axisymmetric belt, with a mean radius of 152au and radial FWHM of 46au, which is too narrow compared to models of inward scattering of an LHB-like scenario. Instead, the hot dust could be explained as material passed inwards in a rather stable planetary configuration. We also report a 4sigma detection of CO at ~ 20au. CO could be released in situ from icy planetesimals being passed in when crossing the H2O or CO2 ice lines. Finally, we place constraints on hidden planets in the disc. If a planet is sculpting the disc's inner edge, this should be orbiting at 75-100au, with a mass of 3-30 M⊕ and an eccentricity < 0.08. Such a planet would be able to clear its chaotic zone on a timescale shorter than the age of the system and scatter material inwards from the outer belt to the inner regions, thus feeding the hot dust.

Exocomet signatures around the A-shell star Φ Leo?

Exocomet signatures around the A-shell star Φ Leo?

Authors:

Eiroa et al

Abstract:

We present an intensive monitoring of high-resolution spectra of the Ca {\sc ii} K line in the A7IV shell star Φ Leo at very short (minutes, hours), short (night to night), and medium term (weeks, months) timescales. The spectra show remarkable variable absorptions on timescales of hours, days and months. The characteristics of these sporadic events are very similar to most of the ones observed towards the debris disk host star β Pic, which are usually interpreted as signs of the evaporation of solid, comet-like bodies grazing or falling onto the star. Therefore, our results suggest the presence of solid bodies around Φ Leo. To our knowledge, with the exception of β Pic, our monitoring is the one with the best time resolution at the mentioned timescales done on a star with events attributed to exocomets. Assuming the cometary scenario, and considering the timescales of our monitoring, our results point to Φ Leo presenting the richest environment with comet-like events yet known, second only to β Pic.

Cometary ices in forming protoplanetary disc midplanes

Cometary ices in forming protoplanetary disc midplanes

Authors:

Drozdovskaya et al

Abstract:

Low-mass protostars are the extrasolar analogues of the natal Solar system. Sophisticated physicochemical models are used to simulate the formation of two protoplanetary discs from the initial prestellar phase, one dominated by viscous spreading and the other by pure infall. The results show that the volatile prestellar fingerprint is modified by the chemistry en route into the disc. This holds relatively independent of initial abundances and chemical parameters: physical conditions are more important. The amount of CO2 increases via the grain-surface reaction of OH with CO, which is enhanced by photodissociation of H2O ice. Complex organic molecules are produced during transport through the envelope at the expense of CH3OH ice. Their abundances can be comparable to that of methanol ice (few per cent of water ice) at large disc radii (R > 30 au). Current Class II disc models may be underestimating the complex organic content. Planet population synthesis models may underestimate the amount of CO2 and overestimate CH3OH ices in planetesimals by disregarding chemical processing between the cloud and disc phases. The overall C/O and C/N ratios differ between the gas and solid phases. The two ice ratios show little variation beyond the inner 10 au and both are nearly solar in the case of pure infall, but both are subsolar when viscous spreading dominates. Chemistry in the protostellar envelope en route to the protoplanetary disc sets the initial volatile and prebiotically significant content of icy planetesimals and cometary bodies. Comets are thus potentially reflecting the provenances of the midplane ices in the solar nebula.

Signatures of Cometary Break-ups Around Class A Stars

Gas and dust around A-type stars at tens of Myr: signatures of cometary break-up

Authors:

Greaves et al

Abstract:

Discs of dusty debris around main-sequence stars indicate fragmentation of orbiting planetesimals, and for a few A-type stars, a gas component is also seen that may come from collisionally-released volatiles. Here we find the sixth example of a CO-hosting disc, around the ∼30 Myr-old A0-star HD 32997. Two more of these CO-hosting stars, HD 21997 and 49 Cet, have also been imaged in dust with SCUBA-2 within the SONS project. A census of 27 A-type debris hosts within 125 pc now shows 7/16 detections of carbon-bearing gas within the 5-50 Myr epoch, with no detections in 11 older systems. Such a prolonged period of high fragmentation rates corresponds quite well to the epoch when most of the Earth was assembled from planetesimal collisions. Recent models propose that collisional products can be spatially asymmetric if they originate at one location in the disc, with CO particularly exhibiting this behaviour as it can photodissociate in less than an orbital period. Of the six CO-hosting systems, only β Pic is in clear support of this hypothesis. However, radiative transfer modelling with the ProDiMo code shows that the CO is also hard to explain in a proto-planetary disc context.

REALISTIC DETECTABILITY OF CLOSE INTERSTELLAR COMETS

REALISTIC DETECTABILITY OF CLOSE INTERSTELLAR COMETS

Authors:

Cook et al

Abstract:

During the planet formation process, billions of comets are created and ejected into interstellar space. The detection and characterization of such interstellar comets (ICs) (also known as extra-solar planetesimals or extra-solar comets) would give us in situ information about the efficiency and properties of planet formation throughout the galaxy. However, no ICs have ever been detected, despite the fact that their hyperbolic orbits would make them readily identifiable as unrelated to the solar system. Moro-Martín et al. have made a detailed and reasonable estimate of the properties of the IC population. We extend their estimates of detectability with a numerical model that allows us to consider "close" ICs, e.g., those that come within the orbit of Jupiter. We include several constraints on a "detectable" object that allow for realistic estimates of the frequency of detections expected from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and other surveys. The influence of several of the assumed model parameters on the frequency of detections is explored in detail. Based on the expectation from Moro-Martín et al., we expect that LSST will detect 0.001–10 ICs during its nominal 10 year lifetime, with most of the uncertainty from the unknown number density of small (nuclei of ~0.1–1 km) ICs. Both asteroid and comet cases are considered, where the latter includes various empirical prescriptions of brightening. Using simulated LSST-like astrometric data, we study the problem of orbit determination for these bodies, finding that LSST could identify their orbits as hyperbolic and determine an ephemeris sufficiently accurate for follow-up in about 4–7 days. We give the hyperbolic orbital parameters of the most detectable ICs. Taking the results into consideration, we give recommendations to future searches for ICs.

Exocometary gas in the HD 181327 debris ring

Exocometary gas in the HD 181327 debris ring

Authors:

Marino et al

Abstract:

An increasing number of observations have shown that gaseous debris discs are not an exception. However, until now we only knew of cases around A stars. Here we present the first detection of 12CO (2-1) disc emission around an F star, HD 181327, obtained with ALMA observations at 1.3 mm. The continuum and CO emission are resolved into an axisymmetric disc with ring-like morphology. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method coupled with radiative transfer calculations we study the dust and CO mass distribution. We find the dust is distributed in a ring with a radius of 86.0 +- 0.4 AU and a radial width of 23.2 +- 1.0 AU. At this frequency the ring radius is smaller than in the optical, revealing grain size segregation expected due to radiation pressure. We also report on the detection of low level continuum emission beyond the main ring out to ~200 AU. We model the CO emission in the non-LTE regime and we find that the CO is co-located with the dust, with a total CO gas mass ranging between 1.2x10^-6 Mearth and 2.9x10^-6 Mearth, depending on the gas kinetic temperature and collisional partners densities. The CO densities and location suggest a secondary origin, i.e. released from icy planetesimals in the ring. We derive a CO+CO2 cometary composition that is consistent with Solar system comets. Due to the low gas densities it is unlikely that the gas is shaping the dust distribution.

Debris disks and the search for life in the universe

Debris disks and the search for life in the universe

Author:

Cataldi

Abstract:

Circumstellar debris disks are the extrasolar analogues of the asteroid belt and the Kuiper belt. They consist of comets and leftover planetesimals that continuously collide and produce circumstellar dust that can be observed as infrared excess or in resolved imaging. As an obvious outcome of the planet formation process, debris disks can help us constrain planet formation theories and learn about the history of our own solar system. This thesis presents observational studies of secondary gas in debris disks. It also discusses the astrobiological potential of debris disks created during impact events onto exoplanets.

Extrasolar comets: the origin of dust in exozodiacal disks?

Extrasolar comets : the origin of dust in exozodiacal disks?

Authors:

Marboeuf et al

Abstract:

Comets have been invoked in numerous studies as a potentially important source of dust and gas around stars, but none has studied the thermo-physical evolution, out-gassing rate, and dust ejection of these objects in such stellar systems. We investigate the thermo-physical evolution of comets in exo-planetary systems in order to provide valuable theoretical data required to interpret observations of gas and dust. We use a quasi 3D model of cometary nucleus to study the thermo-physical evolution of comets evolving around a single star from 0.1 to 50 AU, whose homogeneous luminosity varies from 0.1 to 70 solar luminosities. This paper provides mass ejection, lifetimes, and the rate of dust and water gas mass productions for comets as a function of the distance to the star and stellar luminosity. Results show significant physical changes to comets at high stellar luminosities. The models are presented in such a manner that they can be readily applied to any planetary system. By considering the examples of the Solar System, Vega and HD 69830, we show that dust grains released from sublimating comets have the potential to create the observed (exo)zodiacal emission. We show that observations can be reproduced by 1 to 2 massive comets or by a large number of comets whose orbits approach close to the star. Our conclusions depend on the stellar luminosity and the uncertain lifetime of the dust grains. We find, as in previous studies, that exozodiacal dust disks can only survive if replenished by a population of typically sized comets renewed from a large and cold reservoir of cometary bodies beyond the water ice line. These comets could reach the inner regions of the planetary system following scattering by a (giant) planet.

KIC 8462852's Dimming Revisited

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF THE DIGITIZED MAGNITUDES OF PHOTOMETRIC PLATES ON THE TIMESCALE OF DECADES WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE CENTURY-LONG LIGHT CURVE OF KIC 8462852

Authors:

Hippke et al

Abstract:

We present a statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the timescale of decades. In our examination of archival Johnson B photometry from the Harvard DASCH archive, we find a median rms scatter of light curves of the order of 0.15 mag over the range B ~ 9–17 for all calibrations. Slight underlying systematics (trends or flux discontinuities) are on a level of lesssim0.2 mag per century (1889–1990) for the majority of constant stars. These historic data can be unambiguously used for processes that happen on scales of magnitudes, and need to be carefully examined in cases approaching the noise floor. The characterization of these limits in photometric stability may guide future studies in their use of plate archives. We explain these limitations for the example case of KIC 8462852, which has been claimed to dim by 0.16 mag per century, and show that this trend cannot be considered as significant.

Exocomets Detected Around HD 181327 160 Light Years Away

An international team of astronomers have found evidence of ice and comets orbiting a nearby sun-like star, which could give a glimpse into how our own solar system developed.

Using data from the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA), the researchers, led by the University of Cambridge, detected very low levels of carbon monoxide gas around the star, in amounts that are consistent with the comets in our own solar system.

The results, which will be presented today at the 'Resolving Planet Formation in the era of ALMA and extreme AO' conference in Santiago, Chile, are a first step in establishing the properties of comet clouds around sun-like stars just after the time of their birth.

Comets are essentially 'dirty snowballs' of ice and rock, sometimes with a tail of dust and evaporating ice trailing behind them, and are formed early in the development of stellar systems. They are typically found in the outer reaches of our solar system, but become most clearly visible when they visit the inner regions. For example, Halley's Comet visits the inner solar system every 75 years, some take as long as 100,000 years between visits, and others only visit once before being thrown out into interstellar space.

It's believed that when our solar system was first formed, the Earth was a rocky wasteland, similar to how Mars is today, and that as comets collided with the young planet, they brought many elements and compounds, including water, along with them.

The star in this study, HD 181327, has a mass about 30% greater than the sun and is located 160 light years away in the Painter constellation. The system is about 23 million years old, whereas our solar system is 4.6 billion years old.

"Young systems such as this one are very active, with comets and asteroids slamming into each other and into planets," said Sebastián Marino, a PhD student from Cambridge's Institute of Astronomy and the paper's lead author. "The system has a similar ice composition to our own, so it's a good one to study in order to learn what our solar system looked like early in its existence."

Using ALMA, the astronomers observed the star, which is surrounded by a ring of dust caused by the collisions of comets, asteroids and other bodies. It's likely that this star has planets in orbit around it, but they are impossible to detect using current telescopes.

link.

Comet Formation in Collapsing Pebble Clouds

Comet formation in collapsing pebble clouds. What cometary bulk density implies for the cloud mass and dust-to-ice ratio

Authors:

Lorek et al

Abstract:

Comets are remnants of the icy planetesimals that formed beyond the ice line in the Solar Nebula. Growing from micrometre-sized dust and ice particles to km-sized objects is, however, difficult because of growth barriers and time scale constraints. The gravitational collapse of pebble clouds that formed through the streaming instability may provide a suitable mechanism for comet formation.

We study the collisional compression of cm-sized porous ice/dust-mixed pebbles in collapsing pebble clouds. For this, we developed a collision model for pebbles consisting of a mixture of ice and dust, characterised by their dust-to-ice mass ratio. Using the final compression of the pebbles, we constrain combinations of initial cloud mass, initial pepple porosity, and dust-to-ice ratio that lead to cometesimals which are consistent with observed bulk properties of cometary nuclei.

We find that observed high porosity and low density of ~0.5 g/cc of comet nuclei can only be explained if comets formed in clouds with mass approximately M>1e18 g. Lower mass clouds would only work if the pebbles were initially very compact. Furthermore, the dust-to-ice ratio must be in the range of between 3 and 9 to match the observed bulk properties of comet nuclei. (abridged version)

How to Detect Exosolar Kuiper Belt Objects Through Intermediate-Luminosity Optical Transients

Using Intermediate-Luminosity Optical Transients (ILOTs) to reveal extended exo-solar Kuiper belt objects

Authors:

Bear et al

Abstract:

We suggest that in the rare case of an Intermediate-Luminosity Optical Transient (ILOTs) event, evaporation of exo-solar Kuiper belt objects (ExoKBOs) at distances of d~500 - 10000AU from the ILOT can be detected. If the ILOT lasts for 1 month to a few years, enough dust might be ejected from the ExoKBOs for the IR emission to be detected. Because of the large distance of the ExoKBOs, tens of years will pass before the ILOT wind disperses the dust. We suggest that after an ILOT outburst there is a period of months to several years during which IR excess emission might hint at the existence of a Kuiper belt analog (ExoK-Belt).

How T Tauri Stars Impact Comet Composition

Dust photophoretic transport around a T Tauri star: Implications for comets composition

Authors:

Cordier et al

Abstract:

There is a growing body of evidences for the presence of crystalline material in comets. These crystals are believed to have been annealed in the inner part of the proto-solar nebula, while comets should have been formed in the outer regions. Several transport processes have been proposed to reconcile these two facts; among them a migration driven by photophoresis. The primarily goal of this work is to assess whether disk irradiation by a Pre-Main Sequence star would influence the photophoretic transport. To do so, we have implemented an evolving 1+1D model of an accretion disk, including advanced numerical techniques, undergoing a time-dependent irradiation, consistent with the evolution of the proto-Sun along the Pre-Main Sequence. The photophoresis is described using a formalism introduced in several previous works. Adopting the opacity prescription used in these former studies, we find that the disk irradiation enhances the photophoretic transport: the assumption of a disk central hole of several astronomical units in radius is no longer strictly required, whereas the need for an ad hoc introduction of photoevaporation is reduced. However, we show that a residual trail of small particles could annihilate the photophoretic driven transport via their effect on the opacity. We have also confirmed that the thermal conductivity of transported aggregates is a crucial parameter which could limit or even suppress the photophoretic migration and generate several segregation effects.

Academic Bun Fight! Strong Words From Bradley Schaefer OVer Hippke's Paper Refuting the Century Long KIC 8462852 Dimming

A few hours ago, Michael Hippke posted a manuscript to arXiv (http://arxiv.org/abs/1601.07314), and submitted the same manuscript to the Astrophysical Journal Letters (ApJLett). This manuscript claims to have found that the DASCH data produces light curves with secular trends (both systematic dimmings and brightenings) over the century-long records. This same DASCH data (from the collection of archival sky photographs now at Harvard Observatory) was used to recognize a dimming of KIC 8462852 (a.k.a. ‘Tabby’s Star’ or the ‘WTF star’) at an average rate of 0.165±0.013 magnitudes per century from 1890 to 1989.

This dimming from the DASCH data is just a long-time scale version of the dimming also seen with the Kepler spacecraft, and these dimmings are still a high mystery and a perplexing problem. Hippke is taking his claimed result (that the majority of DASCH light curves have major and widespread calibration errors resulting in apparent secular trends) as then implying that KIC 8462852 does not have any secular trend. This claim is easily proved wrong.

Hippke made two major errors, both of which are beginner’s mistakes, and both of which will erroneously produce apparent dimmings and brightenings when none exist. First, Hippke explicitly includes red-sensitive and yellow-sensitive photographs together with the blue-sensitive photographs. The different colors will produce systematically different brightnesses (magnitudes). The trouble is further that the red and yellow photographs are predominantly at late times in the century-long light curve (in the 1970s and 1980s), so the inclusion of many magnitudes that are systematically high or low only at the end of the century will artificially make the star appear to brighten or dim over the century.

[...]

Perhaps from a journalistic point of view, any ‘stirring of the pot’ is good copy. But from the point of view of science and knowledge, putting up unchecked and false claims is bad all the way around. Science has a great strength of being error-correcting, with the normal procedure now for the DASCH people to put out a full formal refutation of Hippke’s claims, and such will appear in many months. But with the one-day turn-around of arXiv and with fast journalist response, there will be many months where the reputation of DASCH is maligned. So Hippke’s choice of running to reporters before the paper appeared publicly, and disdaining any experienced advice despite being a self-proclaimed “novice”, is not good science.

link.

KIC 8462852 did NOT Fade During the Last 100 Years (hint: calibration is IMPORTANT!)

KIC 8462852 did likely not fade during the last 100 years

Authors:

Hippke et al

Abstract:

A recent analysis found a "completely unprecedented" dimming of 0.165±0.013 magnitudes per century in the F3 main sequence star KIC8462852. This star is interesting, as it shows episodes of day-long dips with up to 20% dimming of unknown origin. We re-analyze the same Harvard archival Johnson B photometry and find comparable dimmings, and structural breaks, for 18 of 28 checked F-dwards (64%) in the Kepler field of view. We conclude that the Harvard plates photometry suffers from imperfect long-term (1890--1989) calibration. The most likely explanation for the century-long dimming of KIC8462852 is thus a data artefact, and it is probably not of astrophysical origin.

KIC 8462852's Circumstellar Dust Matches the Recent Cometary Breakup Scenario

Constraints on the circumstellar dust around KIC 8462852

Authors:

Thompson

Abstract:

We present millimetre (SMA) and sub-millimetre (SCUBA-2) continuum observations of the peculiar star KIC 8462852 which displayed several deep and aperiodic dips in brightness during the Kepler mission. Our observations are approximately confusion-limited at 850 μm and are the deepest millimetre and sub-millimetre photometry of the star that has yet been carried out. No significant emission is detected towards KIC 8462852. We determine upper limits for dust between a few 10−6 M⊕ and 10−3 M⊕ for regions identified as the most likely to host occluding dust clumps and a total overall dust budget of less than 7.7 M⊕ within a radius of 200 AU. Such low limits for the inner system make the catastrophic planetary disruption hypothesis unlikely. Integrating over the Kepler lightcurve we determine that at least 10−9 M⊕ of dust is required to cause the observed Q16 dip. This is consistent with the currently most favoured cometary breakup hypothesis, but nevertheless implies the complete breakup of ∼ 30 Comet 1/P Halley type objects. Finally, in the wide SCUBA-2 field-of-view we identify another candidate debris disc system that is potentially the largest yet discovered.

KIC 8462852 Needs 648,000 Two Hundred km Comets to Fade as Much as Observed From 1890 to 1989

KIC 8462852 Faded at an Average Rate of 0.165+-0.013 Magnitudes Per Century From 1890 To 1989

Author:

Schafer

Abstract:

The star KIC 8462852 is a completely-ordinary F3 main sequence star, except that the light curve from the Kepler spacecraft shows episodes of unique and inexplicable day-long dips with up to 20% dimming. Here, I provide a light curve of 1232 Johnson B-band magnitudes from 1890 to 1989 taken from archival photographic plates at Harvard. KIC 8462852 displays a highly significant and highly confident secular dimming at an average rate of 0.165+-0.013 magnitudes per century. From the early 1890s to the late 1980s, KIC 8462852 has faded by 0.193+-0.030 mag. This century-long dimming is completely unprecedented for any F-type main sequence star. So the Harvard light curve provides the first confirmation (past the several dips seen in the Kepler light curve alone) that KIC 8462852 has anything unusual going on. The century-long dimming and the day-long dips are both just extreme ends of a spectrum of timescales for unique dimming events, so by Ockham's Razor, all this is produced by one physical mechanism. This one mechanism does not appear as any isolated catastrophic event in the last century, but rather must be some ongoing process with continuous effects. Within the context of dust-occultation models, the century-long dimming trend requires 10^4 to 10^7 times as much dust as for the one deepest Kepler dip. Within the context of the comet-family idea, the century-long dimming trend requires an estimated 648,000 giant comets (each with 200 km diameter) all orchestrated to pass in front of the star within the last century.